Manchester City U19 5–2 Crvena Zvezda U19

Manchester City U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Crvena Zvezda U19

J. Heskey 81'

A. Cvetković 54' (OG)

W. Dickson 50'

E. Lawrence 47', 43'

M. Bubanj 78'

J. Mijatović 56'

9/19/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Manchester City U1962%

×Draw18%

Crvena Zvezda U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester City U19Expected goals in this matchCrvena Zvezda U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.50

Manchester City U19

2.69

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.50

Manchester City U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

2.61

creates per match

1.38

1.61

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Manchester City U19

2.61

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.38

allows per match

Manchester City U19

1.61

Crvena Zvezda U19

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City U19+0.00on par

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City U19 ↓

Crvena Zvezda U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Manchester City U19 or draw

80%

Manchester City U19 or Crvena Zvezda U19

82%

Draw or Crvena Zvezda U19

38%

Winning margin

Manchester City U19 wins by 2+

42%

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manchester City U19 1+ goals

93%

Manchester City U19 2+ goals

74%

Manchester City U19 3+ goals

49%

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

78%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

44%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Manchester City U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City U19 at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Crvena Zvezda U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City U19 attack 2.61 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.69

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.38 + Manchester City U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Manchester City U19 scores more

62%

level

18%

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

20%

Manchester City U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Manchester City U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

T. Galvez

28'

A. Vukicevic

39'

M. Susoho

43'

E. Lawrence↳ K. Taylor

47'

E. Lawrence↳ K. Taylor

50'

W. Dickson↳ K. Taylor

53'

A. Cvetković← A. Petrović

53'

D. Miranović← L. Lečić

54'

A. CvetkovićOwn goal

56'

J. Mijatović

64'

N. Gojkov← V. Vukojević

72'

M. Bubanj← J. Šljivić

72'

M. Ostojić← A. Maksimović

75'

J. Heskey← F. Alfa-Ruprecht

78'

M. Bubanj

81'

J. Heskey↳ E. Lawrence

88'

J. Adam← T. Galvez

88'

J. Wright← Mahamadou Susoho

88'

M. Warhurst← E. Lawrence

88'

E. Carrington← L. Samuel

Manchester

Crvena

1

5

2

4

3

10

▼

Lečić

7

▼

Šljivić

8

▼

Petrović

16

▼

Vukojević

11

▼

Maksimovi

9

⚽

Mijatović

1

Grant

4

Alleyne

5

▼

Galvez

2

▼

Samuel

3

Simpson-P

10

A

Taylor

11

⚽2A

▼

Lawrence

6

▼

Susoho

9

⚽

Dickson

8

Oboavwodu

7

▼

Alfa-Rupr

Manager: B. Barry-Murphy

75'▲J. Heskey←▼F. Alfa-Ruprecht

88'▲J. Adam←▼T. Galvez

88'▲J. Wright←▼Mahamadou Susoho

88'▲M. Warhurst←▼E. Lawrence

88'▲E. Carrington←▼L. Samuel

Manchester City U19 substitutes

17Heskey16Adam14Wright18Warhurst12Carrington13Murray-Jones15Okeke

Manager: N. Milijaš

53'▲A. Cvetković←▼A. Petrović

53'▲D. Miranović←▼L. Lečić

64'▲N. Gojkov←▼V. Vukojević

72'▲M. Bubanj←▼J. Šljivić

72'▲M. Ostojić←▼A. Maksimović

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

15Cvetković18Miranović14Gojkov17Bubanj13Ostojić6Vidojević12Draškić

UEFA Youth League: Manchester City U19 5–2 Crvena Zvezda U19

Manchester City U19 beat Crvena Zvezda U19 5-2 in UEFA Youth League on September 19, 2023.

Goals: E. Lawrence (43', 47'), W. Dickson (50'), A. Cvetković (54' o.g.), J. Mijatović (56'), M. Bubanj (78'), J. Heskey (81').

The match was played at Academy Stadium in Manchester.

Manchester City U19 vs Crvena Zvezda U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Manchester City U19 5–2 Crvena Zvezda U19