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Manchego vs San Clemente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manchego
Manchego
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
San Clemente
San Clemente
11/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 10Polideportivo Juan Carlos I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Manchego62%
×Draw23%
San Clemente15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchego
1.71
San Clemente
0.69

Manchego creates 148% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 50 away

creates per match

Manchego
1.56
San Clemente
0.70

allows per match

Manchego
0.67
San Clemente
1.86

finishing

Manchego+0.00on par
San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchego ↓

San Clemente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manchego or draw
85%
Manchego or San Clemente
77%
Draw or San Clemente
38%

Winning margin

Manchego wins by 2+
35%
San Clemente wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchego 1+ goals
82%
Manchego 2+ goals
51%
Manchego 3+ goals
24%
San Clemente 1+ goals
50%
San Clemente 2+ goals
15%
San Clemente 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Manchego (draw refunded)
81%
San Clemente (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchego at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 95 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchego attack 1.56 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

San Clemente attack 0.70 + Manchego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Manchego scores more
62%
level
23%
San Clemente scores more
15%

Manchego at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchego vs San Clemente

Manchego beat San Clemente 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Juan Carlos I in Ciudad Real.