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Manchego vs Marchamalo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manchego
Manchego
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Marchamalo
Marchamalo
10/19/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 7Polideportivo Juan Carlos I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Manchego51%
×Draw27%
Marchamalo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchego
1.43
Marchamalo
0.85

Manchego creates 68% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 79 away

creates per match

Manchego
1.56
Marchamalo
1.03

allows per match

Manchego
0.67
Marchamalo
1.29

finishing

Manchego+0.00on par
Marchamalo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchego ↓

Marchamalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Manchego or draw
78%
Manchego or Marchamalo
73%
Draw or Marchamalo
49%

Winning margin

Manchego wins by 2+
25%
Marchamalo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Manchego 1+ goals
76%
Manchego 2+ goals
42%
Manchego 3+ goals
17%
Marchamalo 1+ goals
57%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
21%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Manchego (draw refunded)
69%
Marchamalo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchego at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 95 matches

Marchamalo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchego attack 1.56 + Marchamalo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Marchamalo attack 1.03 + Manchego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Manchego scores more
51%
level
27%
Marchamalo scores more
22%

Manchego at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Manchego 2–0 Marchamalo

Manchego beat Marchamalo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Juan Carlos I in Ciudad Real.