Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manchego vs Madridejos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manchego
Manchego
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Madridejos
Madridejos
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 12Polideportivo Juan Carlos I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Manchego61%
×Draw24%
Madridejos15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchego
1.68
Madridejos
0.68

Manchego creates 147% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 29 away

creates per match

Manchego
1.56
Madridejos
0.69

allows per match

Manchego
0.67
Madridejos
1.79

finishing

Manchego+0.00on par
Madridejos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchego ↓

Madridejos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manchego or draw
85%
Manchego or Madridejos
76%
Draw or Madridejos
39%

Winning margin

Manchego wins by 2+
35%
Madridejos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchego 1+ goals
81%
Manchego 2+ goals
50%
Manchego 3+ goals
24%
Madridejos 1+ goals
49%
Madridejos 2+ goals
15%
Madridejos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Manchego (draw refunded)
81%
Madridejos (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchego at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 95 matches

Madridejos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchego attack 1.56 + Madridejos defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.68

Madridejos attack 0.69 + Manchego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Manchego scores more
61%
level
24%
Madridejos scores more
15%

Manchego at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchego vs Madridejos

Manchego beat Madridejos 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Juan Carlos I in Ciudad Real.