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Manchego vs Almagro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manchego
Manchego
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Almagro
Almagro
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 8Polideportivo Juan Carlos I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Manchego64%
×Draw22%
Almagro14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchego
1.78
Almagro
0.67

Manchego creates 166% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 29 away

creates per match

Manchego
1.56
Almagro
0.66

allows per match

Manchego
0.67
Almagro
2.00

finishing

Manchego+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchego ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Manchego or draw
86%
Manchego or Almagro
78%
Draw or Almagro
36%

Winning margin

Manchego wins by 2+
37%
Almagro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchego 1+ goals
83%
Manchego 2+ goals
53%
Manchego 3+ goals
26%
Almagro 1+ goals
49%
Almagro 2+ goals
15%
Almagro 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Manchego (draw refunded)
83%
Almagro (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchego at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 95 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchego attack 1.56 + Almagro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Almagro attack 0.66 + Manchego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Manchego scores more
64%
level
22%
Almagro scores more
14%

Manchego at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Manchego 3–0 Almagro

Manchego beat Almagro 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Juan Carlos I in Ciudad Real.