Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mancha Real vs Rincón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rincón
Rincón
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 22Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mancha Real50%
×Draw26%
Rincón24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.48
Rincón
0.94

Mancha Real creates 57% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Rincón
0.94

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Rincón
1.47

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Rincón+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Rincón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
76%
Mancha Real or Rincón
74%
Draw or Rincón
50%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
25%
Rincón wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
77%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
43%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
19%
Rincón 1+ goals
61%
Rincón 2+ goals
24%
Rincón 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
67%
Rincón (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Rincón away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Rincón defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rincón attack 0.94 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mancha Real scores more
50%
level
26%
Rincón scores more
24%

Mancha Real at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Rincón

Mancha Real beat Rincón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.