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Mancha Real vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
CANC
00:00
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mancha Real64%
×Draw20%
Melilla CD15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
2.05
Melilla CD
0.89

Mancha Real creates 130% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
85%
Mancha Real or Melilla CD
80%
Draw or Melilla CD
36%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
40%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
87%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
61%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
33%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
59%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
22%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
81%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.05

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mancha Real scores more
64%
level
20%
Melilla CD scores more
15%

Mancha Real at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mancha Real host Melilla CD

March 14, 2020: Mancha Real take on Melilla CD in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mancha Real host Melilla CD at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.