Mancha Real 0–0 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

Mancha Real

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Linares Deportivo

1/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 20Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mancha Real29%

×Draw26%

Linares Deportivo45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mancha RealExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.51

Mancha Real

1.15

Linares Deportivo

1.51

Linares Deportivo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

2.07

0.95

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Mancha Real

1.50

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Mancha Real

0.95

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw

55%

Mancha Real or Linares Deportivo

74%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

71%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+

12%

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals

68%

Mancha Real 2+ goals

32%

Mancha Real 3+ goals

11%

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

78%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

44%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)

39%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.15

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mancha Real scores more

29%

level

26%

Linares Deportivo scores more

45%

Linares Deportivo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

A. Araiza← Iván Aguilar

67'

Mario Ordoñez← Albertillo

70'

Joan Grasa← Cervera

87'

Álvaro Torralbo← David Romero

89'

Óscar Quesada← Juanfran

89'

Pablo González← Rosendo Alarcon

Mancha

Linares

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pedro Bolaños

67'▲Mario Ordoñez←▼Albertillo

87'▲Álvaro Torralbo←▼David Romero

89'▲Óscar Quesada←▼Juanfran

Mancha Real substitutes

OrdoñezTorralboQuesada

Manager: Juan Arsenal

56'▲A. Araiza←▼Iván Aguilar

70'▲Joan Grasa←▼Cervera

89'▲Pablo González←▼Rosendo Alarcon

Linares Deportivo substitutes

AraizaGrasaGonzález

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Mancha Real 0–0 Linares Deportivo

Mancha Real and Linares Deportivo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.

Mancha Real vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Mancha Real 0–0 Linares Deportivo