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Mancha Real vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mancha Real47%
×Draw26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.48
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.05

Mancha Real creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
73%
Mancha Real or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
74%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
53%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
23%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
77%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
43%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
19%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
65%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
28%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
64%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mancha Real scores more
47%
level
26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
27%

Mancha Real at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Mancha Real 1–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Mancha Real 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.