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Manaus FC vs Trem — Serie D 2026

Manaus FC
Manaus FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Trem
Trem
G. Masson 80'
7/27/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 14Arena da Amazonia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Manaus FC54%
×Draw23%
Trem23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manaus FC
1.81
Trem
1.08

Manaus FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 36 away

creates per match

Manaus FC
1.78
Trem
1.17

allows per match

Manaus FC
1.00
Trem
1.83

finishing

Manaus FC+0.00on par
Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manaus FC ↓

Trem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Manaus FC or draw
77%
Manaus FC or Trem
77%
Draw or Trem
46%

Winning margin

Manaus FC wins by 2+
31%
Trem wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Manaus FC 1+ goals
84%
Manaus FC 2+ goals
54%
Manaus FC 3+ goals
27%
Trem 1+ goals
66%
Trem 2+ goals
29%
Trem 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Manaus FC (draw refunded)
71%
Trem (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manaus FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manaus FC attack 1.78 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Trem attack 1.17 + Manaus FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Manaus FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Trem scores more
23%

Manaus FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Manaus FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
G. Masson
Manaus
Trem
Renatinho Potiguar
Manager: Renatinho Potiguar
Sandro Macapá
Manager: Sandro Macapá

Serie D: Manaus FC 1–0 Trem

Manaus FC beat Trem 1-0 in Serie D on July 27, 2025.

Goals: G. Masson (80').

The match was played at Arena da Amazonia in Manaus.