Manaus FC 1–2 Tombense: Result & Stats | Serie C

Manaus FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tombense

Rafhael Lucas 32'

Jean Lucas 90+3'

Capa 38'

10/30/2021

Serie C · Promotion Round - 5Arena da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Manaus FC47%

×Draw29%

Tombense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manaus FCExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.80

Manaus FC

1.27

Tombense

0.80

Manaus FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 65 away

1.25

creates per match

0.72

0.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Manaus FC

1.25

Tombense

0.72

allows per match

Manaus FC

0.88

Tombense

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manaus FC+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manaus FC ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Manaus FC or draw

77%

Manaus FC or Tombense

71%

Draw or Tombense

53%

Winning margin

Manaus FC wins by 2+

22%

Tombense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Manaus FC 1+ goals

72%

Manaus FC 2+ goals

36%

Manaus FC 3+ goals

14%

Tombense 1+ goals

55%

Tombense 2+ goals

19%

Tombense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Manaus FC (draw refunded)

67%

Tombense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manaus FC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.29 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manaus FC attack 1.25 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tombense attack 0.72 + Manaus FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Manaus FC scores more

47%

level

29%

Tombense scores more

23%

Manaus FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manaus FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Rafhael Lucas

35'

Daniel Costa← Júlio Rusch

38'

Capa

57'

Vitinho← Anderson Paraíba

57'

Marquinhos← Capa

63'

Lucas Falcão← Eduardo Neto

63'

Rodrigo← Luiz Otávio

77'

Denilson← Rafhael Lucas

77'

Douglas Lima← Guilherme Amorim

77'

Edvan← Igor Carvalho

81'

Igor Cássio← Rubens

81'

Jefferson Renan← Everton

90+3'

Jean Lucas

Manaus

Tombense

Garcia

Carvalho

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lucas

Henrique

Manager: Evaristo Piza

35'▲Daniel Costa←▼Júlio Rusch

57'▲Vitinho←▼Anderson Paraíba

77'▲Denilson←▼Rafhael Lucas

77'▲Douglas Lima←▼Guilherme Amorim

77'▲Edvan←▼Igor Carvalho

Manaus FC substitutes

CostaVitinhoDenilsonLimaEdvanGleibsonDerlanRosaMarcãoPassosPhilipSpice

Manager: Rafael Guanaes

57'▲Marquinhos←▼Capa

63'▲Lucas Falcão←▼Eduardo Neto

63'▲Rodrigo←▼Luiz Otávio

81'▲Igor Cássio←▼Rubens

81'▲Jefferson Renan←▼Everton

Tombense substitutes

MarquinhosFalcãoRodrigoCássioRenanBuiateLopesBispoOrtegaPabloVitinho

Serie C: Manaus FC 1–2 Tombense

Tombense beat Manaus FC 2-1 in Serie C on October 30, 2021.

Goals: Rafhael Lucas (32'), Capa (38'), Jean Lucas (90+3').

The match was played at Arena da Amazônia in Manaus, Amazonas.

Manaus FC vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Manaus FC 1–2 Tombense