Manaus FC 2–1 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Manaus FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nautico Recife

Cardoso 90+4'

Douglas 82'

Jean Mangabeira 33'

5/3/2023

Serie C · Round 1Arena da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Manaus FC43%

×Draw28%

Nautico Recife29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manaus FCExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Manaus FC

1.27

Nautico Recife

1.00

Manaus FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 51 away

1.25

creates per match

1.12

0.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Manaus FC

1.25

Nautico Recife

1.12

allows per match

Manaus FC

0.88

Nautico Recife

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manaus FC+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manaus FC ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Manaus FC or draw

71%

Manaus FC or Nautico Recife

72%

Draw or Nautico Recife

57%

Winning margin

Manaus FC wins by 2+

19%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Manaus FC 1+ goals

72%

Manaus FC 2+ goals

36%

Manaus FC 3+ goals

14%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

63%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

26%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Manaus FC (draw refunded)

59%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manaus FC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manaus FC attack 1.25 + Nautico Recife defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nautico Recife attack 1.12 + Manaus FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manaus FC scores more

43%

level

28%

Nautico Recife scores more

29%

Manaus FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manaus FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Thiaguinho← Kayon

23'

30'

33'

46'

46'

62'

Gustavinho← Gabriel Tonini

62'

Michel← Henan

73'

J. Gauto← Eduardo

73'

Matheus Carvalho← Gabriel Santiago

73'

Régis← Thiaguinho

76'

Gabriel Correia← Jean Carlo

82'

Diego Ferreira← Victor Ferraz

82'

Douglas

88'

Gabriel Correia

90+2'

90+6'

90+4'

Cardoso

Manaus

Nautico

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Higo Magalhães

46'▲Cardoso←▼Renan Luis

46'▲Franklin←▼Klenisson

62'▲Gustavinho←▼Gabriel Tonini

62'▲Michel←▼Henan

76'▲Gabriel Correia←▼Jean Carlo

Manaus FC substitutes

CardosoFranklinGustavinhoMichelCorreiaGuilhermeBaianoGharibGustavoCarvalhoFernando

Manager: Dado Cavalcanti

9'▲Thiaguinho←▼Kayon

73'▲J. Gauto←▼Eduardo

73'▲Matheus Carvalho←▼Gabriel Santiago

73'▲Régis←▼Thiaguinho

82'▲Diego Ferreira←▼Victor Ferraz

Nautico Recife substitutes

ThiaguinhoGautoCarvalhoRégisFerreiraLopesSiqueiraRicharlesTroleze

Match Recap: Manaus FC vs Nautico Recife

Manaus FC beat Nautico Recife 2-1 in Serie C on May 3, 2023.

Goals: Jean Mangabeira (33'), Douglas (82'), Cardoso (90+4').

The match was played at Arena da Amazônia in Manaus, Amazonas.

Manaus FC vs Nautico Recife — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Manaus FC vs Nautico Recife