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Manauara vs Trem — Serie D 2026

Manauara
Manauara
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trem
Trem
Manoel 66'
David Peninha 35'
6/7/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Ismael Benigno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Manauara64%
×Draw20%
Trem15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manauara
2.04
Trem
0.88

Manauara creates 132% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

creates per match

Manauara
2.25
Trem
1.17

allows per match

Manauara
0.58
Trem
1.83

finishing

Manauara+0.00on par
Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manauara ↓

Trem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manauara or draw
85%
Manauara or Trem
80%
Draw or Trem
36%

Winning margin

Manauara wins by 2+
40%
Trem wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Manauara 1+ goals
87%
Manauara 2+ goals
60%
Manauara 3+ goals
33%
Trem 1+ goals
59%
Trem 2+ goals
22%
Trem 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Manauara (draw refunded)
81%
Trem (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manauara at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manauara attack 2.25 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Trem attack 1.17 + Manauara defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Manauara scores more
64%
level
20%
Trem scores more
15%

Manauara at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Manauara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
David Peninha
66'
Manoel
90+3'
Manauara
Trem
Luís Carlos Winck
Manager: Luís Carlos Winck
Sandro Macapá
Manager: Sandro Macapá

Serie D: Manauara 2–0 Trem

Manauara beat Trem 2-0 in Serie D on June 7, 2025.

Goals: David Peninha (35'), Manoel (66').

The match was played at Estádio Ismael Benigno in Manaus, Amazonas.