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Manama vs East Riffa — Premier League 2019

Manama
Manama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
East Riffa
East Riffa
12/8/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Manama39%
×Draw29%
East Riffa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manama
1.18
East Riffa
1.06

Manama creates 11% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

creates per match

Manama
1.28
East Riffa
1.10

allows per match

Manama
1.03
East Riffa
1.07

finishing

Manama+0.00on par
East Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manama ↓

East Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Manama or draw
67%
Manama or East Riffa
71%
Draw or East Riffa
61%

Winning margin

Manama wins by 2+
16%
East Riffa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Manama 1+ goals
69%
Manama 2+ goals
33%
Manama 3+ goals
12%
East Riffa 1+ goals
65%
East Riffa 2+ goals
29%
East Riffa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Manama (draw refunded)
54%
East Riffa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manama at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

East Riffa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manama attack 1.28 + East Riffa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

East Riffa attack 1.10 + Manama defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manama scores more
39%
level
29%
East Riffa scores more
33%

Manama at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manama 1–0 East Riffa

Manama beat East Riffa 1-0 in Premier League on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.