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Manama vs Al Hala — Premier League 2019

Manama
Manama
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Hala
Al Hala
10/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Manama47%
×Draw26%
Al Hala26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manama
1.46
Al Hala
1.02

Manama creates 43% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 44 away

creates per match

Manama
1.28
Al Hala
1.00

allows per match

Manama
1.03
Al Hala
1.64

finishing

Manama+0.00on par
Al Hala+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manama ↓

Al Hala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Manama or draw
74%
Manama or Al Hala
74%
Draw or Al Hala
53%

Winning margin

Manama wins by 2+
23%
Al Hala wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Manama 1+ goals
77%
Manama 2+ goals
43%
Manama 3+ goals
18%
Al Hala 1+ goals
64%
Al Hala 2+ goals
27%
Al Hala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Manama (draw refunded)
64%
Al Hala (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manama at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Al Hala away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manama attack 1.28 + Al Hala defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al Hala attack 1.00 + Manama defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Manama scores more
47%
level
26%
Al Hala scores more
26%

Manama at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manama 1–1 Al Hala

Manama and Al Hala drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.