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Manama vs Al Ahed — AFC Cup 2018

Manama
Manama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
2/24/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Manama26%
×Draw35%
Al Ahed40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manama
0.69
Al Ahed
0.94

Al Ahed creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Manama
0.50
Al Ahed
0.88

allows per match

Manama
1.00
Al Ahed
0.88

finishing

Manama+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manama ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–118%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Manama or draw
60%
Manama or Al Ahed
65%
Draw or Al Ahed
74%

Winning margin

Manama wins by 2+
7%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manama 1+ goals
50%
Manama 2+ goals
15%
Manama 3+ goals
3%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
61%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
24%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manama (draw refunded)
39%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manama at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manama attack 0.50 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Al Ahed attack 0.88 + Manama defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manama scores more
26%
level
35%
Al Ahed scores more
40%

Al Ahed at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manama 1 – 0 Al Ahed

Manama beat Al Ahed 1-0 in AFC Cup on February 24, 2020.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.