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Managua vs Deportivo Ocotal — Primera Division 2026

Managua
Managua
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal
8/4/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 1Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Managua64%
×Draw20%
Deportivo Ocotal17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Managua
2.17
Deportivo Ocotal
1.01

Managua creates 115% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 112 away

creates per match

Managua
2.01
Deportivo Ocotal
0.86

allows per match

Managua
1.17
Deportivo Ocotal
2.33

finishing

Managua+0.00on par
Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Managua ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Managua or draw
83%
Managua or Deportivo Ocotal
80%
Draw or Deportivo Ocotal
36%

Winning margin

Managua wins by 2+
40%
Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Managua 1+ goals
89%
Managua 2+ goals
64%
Managua 3+ goals
36%
Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Managua (draw refunded)
79%
Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Managua at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.17 · 146 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.33 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Managua attack 2.01 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.86 + Managua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Managua scores more
64%
level
20%
Deportivo Ocotal scores more
17%

Managua at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Managua 3–1 Deportivo Ocotal

Managua beat Deportivo Ocotal 3-1 in Primera Division on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.