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Manacor vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Manacor
Manacor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
11/23/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 14Estadio Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Manacor67%
×Draw19%
Santa Catalina Atlético13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manacor
2.13
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.82

Manacor creates 160% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 28 away

creates per match

Manacor
1.96
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.57

allows per match

Manacor
1.07
Santa Catalina Atlético
2.29

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par
Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manacor or draw
87%
Manacor or Santa Catalina Atlético
81%
Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético
33%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+
43%
Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals
88%
Manacor 2+ goals
63%
Manacor 3+ goals
35%
Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
56%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
20%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)
83%
Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.13

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Manacor scores more
67%
level
19%
Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
13%

Manacor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Manacor 2–1 Santa Catalina Atlético

Manacor beat Santa Catalina Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Na Capellera in Mallorca.