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Manacor vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Manacor
Manacor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Rafael
San Rafael
4/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Manacor55%
×Draw24%
San Rafael22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manacor
1.75
San Rafael
1.00

Manacor creates 75% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 47 away

creates per match

Manacor
1.96
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Manacor
1.07
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Manacor or draw
78%
Manacor or San Rafael
76%
Draw or San Rafael
45%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+
31%
San Rafael wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals
83%
Manacor 2+ goals
52%
Manacor 3+ goals
25%
San Rafael 1+ goals
63%
San Rafael 2+ goals
26%
San Rafael 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)
72%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manacor scores more
55%
level
24%
San Rafael scores more
22%

Manacor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manacor vs San Rafael

Manacor beat San Rafael 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Na Capellera in Mallorca.