Manacor 1–0 Portmany: Result & Stats

Manacor

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portmany

2/21/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Manacor56%

×Draw23%

Portmany21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManacorExpected goals in this matchPortmany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.03

Manacor

1.84

Portmany

1.03

Manacor creates 79% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 112 away

1.96

creates per match

0.99

1.07

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Manacor

1.96

Portmany

0.99

allows per match

Manacor

1.07

Portmany

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par

Portmany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Portmany →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Manacor or draw

79%

Manacor or Portmany

77%

Draw or Portmany

44%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+

32%

Portmany wins by 2+

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals

84%

Manacor 2+ goals

55%

Manacor 3+ goals

28%

Portmany 1+ goals

64%

Portmany 2+ goals

28%

Portmany 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)

73%

Portmany (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Portmany away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.73 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Portmany defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.84

Portmany attack 0.99 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Manacor scores more

56%

level

23%

Portmany scores more

21%

Manacor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff