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Manacor vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Manacor
Manacor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
2/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 21Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Manacor45%
×Draw26%
Penya Independent28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manacor
1.44
Penya Independent
1.08

Manacor creates 33% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

creates per match

Manacor
1.96
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Manacor
1.07
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Manacor or draw
72%
Manacor or Penya Independent
74%
Draw or Penya Independent
55%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+
22%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals
76%
Manacor 2+ goals
42%
Manacor 3+ goals
18%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
66%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
29%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)
62%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.44

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manacor scores more
45%
level
26%
Penya Independent scores more
28%

Manacor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manacor vs Penya Independent

Manacor beat Penya Independent 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera in Manacor.