Manacor 6–2 CE Sant Jordi: Result & Stats

Manacor

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

CE Sant Jordi

10/15/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Manacor77%

×Draw14%

CE Sant Jordi9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManacorExpected goals in this matchCE Sant Jordi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

0.83

Manacor

2.78

CE Sant Jordi

0.83

Manacor creates 235% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

1.96

creates per match

0.60

1.07

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Manacor

1.96

CE Sant Jordi

0.60

allows per match

Manacor

1.07

CE Sant Jordi

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par

CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

CE Sant Jordi →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Manacor or draw

91%

Manacor or CE Sant Jordi

86%

Draw or CE Sant Jordi

23%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+

57%

CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals

94%

Manacor 2+ goals

76%

Manacor 3+ goals

51%

CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

56%

CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

20%

CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)

90%

CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

CE Sant Jordi away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + CE Sant Jordi defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.78

CE Sant Jordi attack 0.60 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Manacor scores more

77%

level

14%

CE Sant Jordi scores more

Manacor at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff