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Manacor vs Andratx — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Manacor
Manacor
CANC
00:00
Andratx
Andratx
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Estadio Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Manacor41%
×Draw24%
Andratx35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manacor
1.59
Andratx
1.44

Manacor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 41 away

creates per match

Manacor
1.96
Andratx
1.80

allows per match

Manacor
1.07
Andratx
1.22

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par
Andratx+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Andratx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Manacor or draw
65%
Manacor or Andratx
76%
Draw or Andratx
59%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+
21%
Andratx wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals
80%
Manacor 2+ goals
47%
Manacor 3+ goals
21%
Andratx 1+ goals
76%
Andratx 2+ goals
42%
Andratx 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)
54%
Andratx (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Andratx away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Andratx defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.59

Andratx attack 1.80 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manacor scores more
41%
level
24%
Andratx scores more
35%

Manacor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manacor face Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Manacor hosting Andratx. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Manacor host Andratx at Estadio Na Capellera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.