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Manacor vs Alaior — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Manacor
Manacor
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Alaior
Alaior
2/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 19Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Manacor60%
×Draw22%
Alaior18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manacor
1.89
Alaior
0.92

Manacor creates 105% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 17 away

creates per match

Manacor
1.96
Alaior
0.76

allows per match

Manacor
1.07
Alaior
1.82

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par
Alaior+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Alaior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Manacor or draw
82%
Manacor or Alaior
78%
Draw or Alaior
40%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+
35%
Alaior wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals
85%
Manacor 2+ goals
56%
Manacor 3+ goals
29%
Alaior 1+ goals
60%
Alaior 2+ goals
23%
Alaior 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)
77%
Alaior (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Alaior away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Alaior defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89

Alaior attack 0.76 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manacor scores more
60%
level
22%
Alaior scores more
18%

Manacor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manacor vs Alaior

Manacor beat Alaior 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera in Manacor.