Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Mufulira Wanderers — Super League 2019

Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mufulira Wanderers
Mufulira Wanderers
8/24/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Nakambala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy47%
×Draw32%
Mufulira Wanderers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.11
Mufulira Wanderers
0.65

Man Utd Zambia Academy creates 71% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

creates per match

Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03
Mufulira Wanderers
0.52

allows per match

Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.78
Mufulira Wanderers
1.20

finishing

Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par
Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Man Utd Zambia Academy ↓

Mufulira Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Man Utd Zambia Academy or draw
79%
Man Utd Zambia Academy or Mufulira Wanderers
68%
Draw or Mufulira Wanderers
53%

Winning margin

Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
20%
Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
67%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
30%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
10%
Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals
48%
Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals
14%
Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
68%
Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Man Utd Zambia Academy at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.78 · 76 matches

Mufulira Wanderers away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mufulira Wanderers attack 0.52 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
47%
level
32%
Mufulira Wanderers scores more
21%

Man Utd Zambia Academy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Man Utd Zambia Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Mufulira Wanderers

Man Utd Zambia Academy and Mufulira Wanderers drew 0-0 in Super League on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Nakambala Stadium in Mazabuka.