Mamry Giżycko 1–3 Unia Skierniewice: Result & Stats

Mamry Giżycko

FT

1 – 3

Unia Skierniewice

K. Wiszniewski 41'

K. Sabillo 75', 73'

D. Makuch 38'

10/9/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko27%

×Draw23%

Unia Skierniewice50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamry GiżyckoExpected goals in this matchUnia Skierniewice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.77

Mamry Giżycko

1.23

Unia Skierniewice

1.77

Unia Skierniewice creates 44% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 86 away

1.17

creates per match

1.81

1.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko

1.17

Unia Skierniewice

1.81

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko

1.72

Unia Skierniewice

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Unia Skierniewice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw

50%

Mamry Giżycko or Unia Skierniewice

77%

Draw or Unia Skierniewice

73%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+

11%

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals

71%

Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals

35%

Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals

13%

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals

83%

Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals

53%

Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)

35%

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Unia Skierniewice away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.81 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more

27%

level

23%

Unia Skierniewice scores more

50%

Unia Skierniewice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

D. Makuch

41'

K. Wiszniewski

73'

K. Sabillo

75'

K. Sabillo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff