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Mamry Giżycko vs Polonia Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
S. Lewicki 62'
A. Kucharski 57' (OG)
5/14/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko25%
×Draw24%
Polonia Warszawa51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamry Giżycko
1.11
Polonia Warszawa
1.68

Polonia Warszawa creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.64

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.72
Polonia Warszawa
1.06

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw
49%
Mamry Giżycko or Polonia Warszawa
76%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
75%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
10%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
67%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
30%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
10%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
81%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
50%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
33%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.64 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more
25%
level
24%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
51%

Polonia Warszawa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
A. KucharskiOwn goal
62'
S. Lewicki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamry Giżycko vs Polonia Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Mamry Giżycko 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 14, 2022.

Goals: A. Kucharski (57' o.g.), S. Lewicki (62').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko in Giżycko.