Mamry Giżycko 0–1 Legionovia Legionowo

Mamry Giżycko

FT

0 – 1

Legionovia Legionowo

9/25/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko32%

×Draw24%

Legionovia Legionowo45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamry GiżyckoExpected goals in this matchLegionovia Legionowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.71

Mamry Giżycko

1.40

Legionovia Legionowo

1.71

Legionovia Legionowo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

1.17

creates per match

1.69

1.72

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko

1.17

Legionovia Legionowo

1.69

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko

1.72

Legionovia Legionowo

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw

55%

Mamry Giżycko or Legionovia Legionowo

76%

Draw or Legionovia Legionowo

68%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+

14%

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals

75%

Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals

41%

Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals

17%

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

82%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

51%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)

41%

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more

32%

level

24%

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

45%

Legionovia Legionowo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff