Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mamry Giżycko vs Broń Radom — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
FT
1 – 2
Broń Radom
Broń Radom
L. Broz 84' (pen)
B. Olszewski 52'
P. Goljasz 48'
9/4/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko40%
×Draw25%
Broń Radom36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamry Giżycko
1.52
Broń Radom
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 103 away

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.17
Broń Radom
1.17

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.72
Broń Radom
1.87

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par
Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Broń Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw
64%
Mamry Giżycko or Broń Radom
75%
Draw or Broń Radom
60%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
19%
Broń Radom wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
78%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
45%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
20%
Broń Radom 1+ goals
76%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
42%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
52%
Broń Radom (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more
40%
level
25%
Broń Radom scores more
36%

Mamry Giżycko at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mamry Giżycko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
P. Goljasz
52'
B. Olszewski
84'
L. BrozPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamry Giżycko vs Broń Radom

Broń Radom beat Mamry Giżycko 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 4, 2021.

Goals: P. Goljasz (48'), B. Olszewski (52'), L. Broz (84' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko in Giżycko.