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Mamry Giżycko vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
FT
1 – 3
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
10/16/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko35%
×Draw25%
Błonianka Błonie41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamry Giżycko
1.40
Błonianka Błonie
1.54

Błonianka Błonie creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.17
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.72
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw
59%
Mamry Giżycko or Błonianka Błonie
75%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
65%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
16%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
75%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
41%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
17%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
79%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
45%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
46%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more
35%
level
25%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
41%

Błonianka Błonie at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Mamry Giżycko 1–3 Błonianka Błonie

Błonianka Błonie beat Mamry Giżycko 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko in Giżycko.