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Mamoré vs Varginha EC — Mineiro - 2 2026

Mamoré
Mamoré
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Varginha EC
Varginha EC
L. Pinheiro 89'
J. Kaique 85'
Joel Araujo 30' (pen)
M. Pereira 50'
Luann 26'
6/22/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 10Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mamoré42%
×Draw30%
Varginha EC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamoré
1.15
Varginha EC
0.88

Mamoré creates 31% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mamoré
0.84
Varginha EC
0.92

allows per match

Mamoré
0.84
Varginha EC
1.46

finishing

Mamoré+0.00on par
Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré ↓

Varginha EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mamoré or draw
72%
Mamoré or Varginha EC
70%
Draw or Varginha EC
58%

Winning margin

Mamoré wins by 2+
18%
Varginha EC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mamoré 1+ goals
68%
Mamoré 2+ goals
32%
Mamoré 3+ goals
11%
Varginha EC 1+ goals
59%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
22%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mamoré (draw refunded)
60%
Varginha EC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré attack 0.84 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Mamoré defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mamoré scores more
42%
level
30%
Varginha EC scores more
28%

Mamoré at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mamoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Luann
30'
Joel AraujoPenalty
50'
M. Pereira
85'
J. Kaique
89'
L. Pinheiro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamoré vs Varginha EC

Mamoré beat Varginha EC 3-2 in Mineiro - 2 on June 22, 2024.

Goals: Luann (26'), Joel Araujo (30' pen), M. Pereira (50'), J. Kaique (85'), L. Pinheiro (89').

The match was played at Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz in Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais.