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Mamoré vs Uniao Trabalhadores — Mineiro - 2 2026

Mamoré
Mamoré
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
Italo 24'
Rodrigo Andrade 39'
5/19/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 4Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mamoré30%
×Draw32%
Uniao Trabalhadores38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamoré
0.88
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.03

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Mamoré
0.84
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.22

allows per match

Mamoré
0.84
Uniao Trabalhadores
0.91

finishing

Mamoré+0.00on par
Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 70Over: 3070%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mamoré or draw
62%
Mamoré or Uniao Trabalhadores
68%
Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores
70%

Winning margin

Mamoré wins by 2+
10%
Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mamoré 1+ goals
59%
Mamoré 2+ goals
22%
Mamoré 3+ goals
6%
Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
64%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
28%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mamoré (draw refunded)
44%
Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré attack 0.84 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.22 + Mamoré defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mamoré scores more
30%
level
32%
Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
38%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Italo
39'
Rodrigo Andrade

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Mamoré 1–1 Uniao Trabalhadores

Mamoré and Uniao Trabalhadores drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 19, 2025.

Goals: Italo (24'), Rodrigo Andrade (39').

The match was played at Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz in Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais.