Mamoré 2–1 Uberaba: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 2

Mamoré

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Uberaba

Luiz Fernando 78'

Ian Augusto 55'

V. de Oliveira Valerio 90+5'

7/18/2026

Mineiro - 2 · Quarter-finalsEstadio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mamoré39%

×Draw31%

Uberaba30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MamoréExpected goals in this matchUberaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.92

Mamoré

1.09

Uberaba

0.92

Mamoré creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

0.84

creates per match

1.00

0.84

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Mamoré

0.84

Uberaba

1.00

allows per match

Mamoré

0.84

Uberaba

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamoré+0.00on par

Uberaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré ↓

Uberaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mamoré or draw

70%

Mamoré or Uberaba

69%

Draw or Uberaba

61%

Winning margin

Mamoré wins by 2+

16%

Uberaba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mamoré 1+ goals

66%

Mamoré 2+ goals

30%

Mamoré 3+ goals

10%

Uberaba 1+ goals

60%

Uberaba 2+ goals

23%

Uberaba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mamoré (draw refunded)

56%

Uberaba (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Uberaba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré attack 0.84 + Uberaba defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.09

Uberaba attack 1.00 + Mamoré defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mamoré scores more

39%

level

31%

Uberaba scores more

30%

Mamoré at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mamoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Ian Augusto

78'

Luiz Fernando

90+5'

V. de Oliveira Valerio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff