Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mamoré vs North Esporte — Mineiro - 2 2026

Mamoré
Mamoré
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
North Esporte
North Esporte
Unknown 9'
5/12/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 2Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mamoré35%
×Draw34%
North Esporte31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamoré
0.87
North Esporte
0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Mamoré
0.84
North Esporte
0.76

allows per match

Mamoré
0.84
North Esporte
0.90

finishing

Mamoré+0.00on par
North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 77Over: 2377%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 68Yes: 3268%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré ↓

North Esporte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mamoré or draw
69%
Mamoré or North Esporte
66%
Draw or North Esporte
65%

Winning margin

Mamoré wins by 2+
12%
North Esporte wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mamoré 1+ goals
58%
Mamoré 2+ goals
22%
Mamoré 3+ goals
6%
North Esporte 1+ goals
55%
North Esporte 2+ goals
19%
North Esporte 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mamoré (draw refunded)
53%
North Esporte (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

North Esporte away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré attack 0.84 + North Esporte defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.87

North Esporte attack 0.76 + Mamoré defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mamoré scores more
35%
level
34%
North Esporte scores more
31%

Mamoré at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mamoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamoré vs North Esporte

Mamoré beat North Esporte 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 12, 2024.

Goals: ? (9').

The match was played at Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz in Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais.