Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mamoré vs Guarani MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Mamoré
Mamoré
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Guarani MG
Guarani MG
Unknown 75', 20'
Unknown 87', 16'
7/1/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mamoré36%
×Draw32%
Guarani MG32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamoré
0.99
Guarani MG
0.90

Mamoré creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mamoré
0.84
Guarani MG
0.95

allows per match

Mamoré
0.84
Guarani MG
1.15

finishing

Mamoré+0.00on par
Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 71Over: 2971%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 63Yes: 3763%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré ↓

Guarani MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mamoré or draw
68%
Mamoré or Guarani MG
68%
Draw or Guarani MG
64%

Winning margin

Mamoré wins by 2+
14%
Guarani MG wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mamoré 1+ goals
63%
Mamoré 2+ goals
26%
Mamoré 3+ goals
8%
Guarani MG 1+ goals
59%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
23%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mamoré (draw refunded)
54%
Guarani MG (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré attack 0.84 + Guarani MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Guarani MG attack 0.95 + Mamoré defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mamoré scores more
36%
level
32%
Guarani MG scores more
32%

Mamoré at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mamoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
20'
69'
75'
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Mamoré 2–2 Guarani MG

Mamoré and Guarani MG drew 2-2 in Mineiro - 2 on July 1, 2026.

Goals: ? (16', 20', 75', 87').