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Mamoré vs CAP — Mineiro - 2 2026

Mamoré
Mamoré
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CAP
CAP
Ian Augusto 45'
7/12/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mamoré26%
×Draw36%
CAP38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamoré
0.67
CAP
0.88

CAP creates 31% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

creates per match

Mamoré
0.84
CAP
0.92

allows per match

Mamoré
0.84
CAP
0.50

finishing

Mamoré+0.00on par
CAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 80Over: 2080%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 71Yes: 2971%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré ↓

CAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–119%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mamoré or draw
62%
Mamoré or CAP
64%
Draw or CAP
74%

Winning margin

Mamoré wins by 2+
7%
CAP wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mamoré 1+ goals
49%
Mamoré 2+ goals
15%
Mamoré 3+ goals
3%
CAP 1+ goals
59%
CAP 2+ goals
22%
CAP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mamoré (draw refunded)
41%
CAP (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

CAP away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré attack 0.84 + CAP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

CAP attack 0.92 + Mamoré defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mamoré scores more
26%
level
36%
CAP scores more
38%

CAP at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Ian Augusto
Mamoré
CAP
Carlos Alberto
Manager: Carlos Alberto
Vitor
Manager: Vitor

Mamoré 1 – 0 CAP

Mamoré beat CAP 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 12, 2026.

Goals: Ian Augusto (45').