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Mamoré U20 vs XV de Novembro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Mamoré U20
Mamoré U20
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
Unknown 66', 64', 9', 2'
Unknown 58', 45+5' (pen), 28'
6/28/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mamoré U2055%
×Draw20%
XV de Novembro U2025%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamoré U20
2.24
XV de Novembro U20
1.46

Mamoré U20 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Mamoré U20
1.40
XV de Novembro U20
0.92

allows per match

Mamoré U20
2.00
XV de Novembro U20
3.08

finishing

Mamoré U20+0.00on par
XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré U20 ↓

XV de Novembro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mamoré U20 or draw
75%
Mamoré U20 or XV de Novembro U20
80%
Draw or XV de Novembro U20
45%

Winning margin

Mamoré U20 wins by 2+
34%
XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mamoré U20 1+ goals
89%
Mamoré U20 2+ goals
65%
Mamoré U20 3+ goals
38%
XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
77%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
43%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mamoré U20 (draw refunded)
69%
XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

XV de Novembro U20 away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré U20 attack 1.40 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.24

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.92 + Mamoré U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mamoré U20 scores more
55%
level
20%
XV de Novembro U20 scores more
25%

Mamoré U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mamoré U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
9'
28'
45+5'
Penalty
58'
64'
66'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Mamoré U20 4–3 XV de Novembro U20

Mamoré U20 beat XV de Novembro U20 4-3 in Mineiro U20 on June 28, 2025.

Goals: ? (2', 9', 28', 45+5' pen, 58', 64', 66').

The match was played at Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz in Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais.