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Mamoré U20 vs Uberaba U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Mamoré U20
Mamoré U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Uberaba U20
Uberaba U20
Nelzi 58'
Joao Vitor 31'
7/26/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mamoré U2041%
×Draw24%
Uberaba U2035%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamoré U20
1.59
Uberaba U20
1.45

Mamoré U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mamoré U20
1.40
Uberaba U20
0.89

allows per match

Mamoré U20
2.00
Uberaba U20
1.78

finishing

Mamoré U20+0.00on par
Uberaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré U20 ↓

Uberaba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mamoré U20 or draw
65%
Mamoré U20 or Uberaba U20
76%
Draw or Uberaba U20
59%

Winning margin

Mamoré U20 wins by 2+
20%
Uberaba U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mamoré U20 1+ goals
80%
Mamoré U20 2+ goals
47%
Mamoré U20 3+ goals
21%
Uberaba U20 1+ goals
77%
Uberaba U20 2+ goals
42%
Uberaba U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mamoré U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Uberaba U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré U20 attack 1.40 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Uberaba U20 attack 0.89 + Mamoré U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mamoré U20 scores more
41%
level
24%
Uberaba U20 scores more
35%

Mamoré U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mamoré U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Joao Vitor
58'
Nelzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamoré U20 vs Uberaba U20

Uberaba U20 beat Mamoré U20 2-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 26, 2025.

Goals: Joao Vitor (31'), Nelzi (58').

The match was played at Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz in Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais.