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Mamoré U20 vs Itabirito U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Mamoré U20
Mamoré U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Itabirito U20
Itabirito U20
Unknown 83', 54'
Unknown 90+2', 45+7'
6/7/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mamoré U2039%
×Draw25%
Itabirito U2036%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamoré U20
1.42
Itabirito U20
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mamoré U20
1.40
Itabirito U20
0.73

allows per match

Mamoré U20
2.00
Itabirito U20
1.45

finishing

Mamoré U20+0.00on par
Itabirito U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamoré U20 ↓

Itabirito U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mamoré U20 or draw
64%
Mamoré U20 or Itabirito U20
75%
Draw or Itabirito U20
61%

Winning margin

Mamoré U20 wins by 2+
18%
Itabirito U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mamoré U20 1+ goals
76%
Mamoré U20 2+ goals
41%
Mamoré U20 3+ goals
17%
Itabirito U20 1+ goals
74%
Itabirito U20 2+ goals
39%
Itabirito U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mamoré U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Itabirito U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamoré U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Itabirito U20 away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamoré U20 attack 1.40 + Itabirito U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Itabirito U20 attack 0.73 + Mamoré U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mamoré U20 scores more
39%
level
25%
Itabirito U20 scores more
36%

Mamoré U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mamoré U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+7'
54'
83'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Mamoré U20 2–2 Itabirito U20

Mamoré U20 and Itabirito U20 drew 2-2 in Mineiro U20 on June 7, 2025.

Goals: ? (45+7', 54', 83', 90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Bernardo Rubinger de Queiroz in Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais.