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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Stade Malien Bamako — CAF Champions League 2019

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundownsadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
3/13/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsLucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns58%
×Draw25%
Stade Malien Bamako17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.58
Stade Malien Bamako
0.71

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 123% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
2.07
Stade Malien Bamako
0.91

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.51
Stade Malien Bamako
1.09

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
83%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Stade Malien Bamako
75%
Draw or Stade Malien Bamako
42%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
31%
Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
79%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
47%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
21%
Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
51%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
16%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
78%
Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stade Malien Bamako attack 0.91 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
58%
level
25%
Stade Malien Bamako scores more
17%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Mamelodi Sundowns 3–0 Stade Malien Bamako

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Stade Malien Bamako 3-0 in CAF Champions League on March 13, 2026.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria.