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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Royal AM — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Royal AM
Royal AM
5/11/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns60%
×Draw23%
Royal AM17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.78
Royal AM
0.82

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 117% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 50 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Royal AM
1.10

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Royal AM
1.62

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Royal AM+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Royal AM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
83%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Royal AM
77%
Draw or Royal AM
40%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
34%
Royal AM wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
83%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
53%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
26%
Royal AM 1+ goals
56%
Royal AM 2+ goals
20%
Royal AM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
78%
Royal AM (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Royal AM away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Royal AM defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.78

Royal AM attack 1.10 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
60%
level
23%
Royal AM scores more
17%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Royal AM

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Royal AM 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria, GT.