Mamelodi Sundowns 2–0 Polokwane City

Mamelodi Sundowns

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Polokwane City

11/6/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 5Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns59%

×Draw26%

Polokwane City15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamelodi SundownsExpected goals in this matchPolokwane City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.61

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.50

Polokwane City

0.61

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 146% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

1.94

creates per match

0.68

0.54

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.94

Polokwane City

0.68

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.54

Polokwane City

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Polokwane City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Polokwane City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw

85%

Mamelodi Sundowns or Polokwane City

74%

Draw or Polokwane City

41%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

31%

Polokwane City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

78%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

44%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

19%

Polokwane City 1+ goals

46%

Polokwane City 2+ goals

13%

Polokwane City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

80%

Polokwane City (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Polokwane City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.05 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Polokwane City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

Polokwane City attack 0.68 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

59%

level

26%

Polokwane City scores more

15%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff