Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
5/6/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 27Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns52%
×Draw27%
Kaizer Chiefs21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.46
Kaizer Chiefs
0.81

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 80% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 124 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.98
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Kaizer Chiefs
0.94

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
79%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Kaizer Chiefs
73%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
48%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
26%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
77%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
43%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
18%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
56%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
19%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
72%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.54 · 125 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.98 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
52%
level
27%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
21%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs

Mamelodi Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 6, 2026.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane/Pretoria.