Mamelodi Sundowns 3–1 Galaxy: Result & Stats

Mamelodi Sundowns

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Galaxy

T. Morena 81'

M. Mvala 67'

K. Erasmus 38'

T. Sembowa 89'

1/5/2021

CAF Champions League · 1st RoundLoftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns73%

×Draw18%

Galaxy9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamelodi SundownsExpected goals in this matchGalaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.61

Mamelodi Sundowns

2.14

Galaxy

0.61

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 251% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

2.07

creates per match

0.71

0.51

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

2.07

Galaxy

0.71

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.51

Galaxy

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw

91%

Mamelodi Sundowns or Galaxy

82%

Draw or Galaxy

27%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

48%

Galaxy wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

88%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

63%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

36%

Galaxy 1+ goals

46%

Galaxy 2+ goals

13%

Galaxy 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

89%

Galaxy (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

Galaxy away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + Galaxy defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.14

Galaxy attack 0.71 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

73%

level

18%

Galaxy scores more

9%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

K. Erasmus

56'

T. Sembowa← R. Lourenco

64'

M. Makgalwa← K. Erasmus

67'

O. Malebye← L. Ditsele

67'

L. Maswena← T. Sesinyi

67'

M. Mvala

74'

H. Kekana← P. Shalulile

74'

S. Mkhulise← A. Jali

81'

T. Morena

89'

T. Sembowa

Mamelodi

Galaxy

1

27

6

5

25

19

▼

3

28

8

11

▼

Sesinyi

12

▼

1

3

6

15

▼

Jali

7

Lakay

27

⚽

Morena

37

Modiba

11

⚽

▼

Erasmus

22

⚽

Mvala

17

▼

Shalulile

28

Maboe

Manager: M. Mngqithi

64'▲M. Makgalwa←▼K. Erasmus

74'▲H. Kekana←▼P. Shalulile

74'▲S. Mkhulise←▼A. Jali

Mamelodi Sundowns substitutes

26Makgalwa8Kekana21Mkhulise4Langerman10Sirino29Soumahoro40Pieterse

Manager: L. Keatlholetswe

56'▲T. Sembowa←▼R. Lourenco

67'▲O. Malebye←▼L. Ditsele

67'▲L. Maswena←▼T. Sesinyi

Galaxy substitutes

23Sembowa10Malebye17Maswena13Gouws14Paeye21Thatanyane29Sangare