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Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis — CAF Champions League 2019

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundownsadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ES Tunis
ES Tunis
4/18/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Semi-finalsLucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns54%
×Draw26%
ES Tunis20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.48
ES Tunis
0.77

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 92% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 40 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
2.07
ES Tunis
1.02

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.51
ES Tunis
0.90

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

ES Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
80%
Mamelodi Sundowns or ES Tunis
74%
Draw or ES Tunis
46%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
28%
ES Tunis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
77%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
43%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
19%
ES Tunis 1+ goals
54%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
18%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
73%
ES Tunis (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + ES Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

ES Tunis attack 1.02 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
54%
level
26%
ES Tunis scores more
20%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 ES Tunis

Mamelodi Sundowns beat ES Tunis 1-0 in CAF Champions League on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria.