Mamelodi Sundowns 2–1 Cotonsport: Result & Stats

Mamelodi Sundowns

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cotonsport

A. Nasir 86'

M. Mekong 43' (OG)

M. Kasali 90+5'

4/1/2023

CAF Champions League · Group B - 6Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns62%

×Draw23%

Cotonsport14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamelodi SundownsExpected goals in this matchCotonsport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.67

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.70

Cotonsport

0.67

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 154% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 6 away

2.07

creates per match

0.83

0.51

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

2.07

Cotonsport

0.83

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.51

Cotonsport

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Cotonsport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw

86%

Mamelodi Sundowns or Cotonsport

77%

Draw or Cotonsport

38%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

35%

Cotonsport wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

82%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

51%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

24%

Cotonsport 1+ goals

49%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

15%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

81%

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + Cotonsport defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cotonsport attack 0.83 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

62%

level

23%

Cotonsport scores more

14%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Allende

Mamelodi Sundowns · M

7.9

Match Events

28'

Ako Oru

31'

Terrence Mashego

43'

M. MekongOwn goal

60'

K. Daouda← J. Atangana

62'

E. Saavedra← N. Maema

62'

A. Nasir← M. Allende

69'

Boubkari Dairou

76'

S. Ngobeni← T. Mashego

77'

T. Kutumela← C. Mailula

80'

80'

81'

86'

89'

M. Kasali← M. Veraloh

89'

M. Hassana← M. Mekong

90'

N. Nkosi← S. Mkhulise

90+5'

M. Kasali↳ C. Malone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MamelodiCotonsport

Overview

73%Possession27%

9Total Shots12

6Corners2

17Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target4

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

8Inside Box5

1Outside Box7

Passing

73%Possession27%

651Total Passes233

560Accurate Passes152

86%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Cotonsport

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Cotonsport 2-1 in CAF Champions League on April 1, 2023.

Goals: M. Mekong (43' o.g.), A. Nasir (86'), M. Kasali (90+5').

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (73%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane.

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Cotonsport — CAF Champions League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Cotonsport