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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Côte d'Or — CAF Champions League 2019

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
11 – 1
HT: 6 – 0
Côte d'Or
Côte d'Or
M. Affonso 83'
B. Marie 77' (OG)
N. Zwane 74'
A. Ngcongca 58'
M. Madisha 47'
T. Morena 43'
O. Manyisa 37'
S. Vilakazi 24', 21'
L. Sirino 19'
T. Zwane 9'
F. Voavy 79'
9/27/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundLucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns85%
×Draw9%
Côte d'Or6%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
3.70
Côte d'Or
0.92

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 302% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
2.07
Côte d'Or
1.33

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.51
Côte d'Or
5.33

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Côte d'Or+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Côte d'Or →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
94%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Côte d'Or
91%
Draw or Côte d'Or
15%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
69%
Côte d'Or wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
97%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
87%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
69%
Côte d'Or 1+ goals
60%
Côte d'Or 2+ goals
23%
Côte d'Or 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
94%
Côte d'Or (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

Côte d'Or away — creates 1.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + Côte d'Or defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.70

Côte d'Or attack 1.33 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
85%
level
9%
Côte d'Or scores more
6%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
T. Zwane
19'
L. Sirino
21'
S. Vilakazi
24'
S. Vilakazi
37'
O. Manyisa
43'
T. Morena
47'
M. Madisha
58'
A. Ngcongca
74'
N. Zwane
77'
B. MarieOwn goal
79'
F. Voavy
83'
M. Affonso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Côte d'Or

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Côte d'Or 11-1 in CAF Champions League on September 27, 2019.

Goals: T. Zwane (9'), L. Sirino (19'), S. Vilakazi (21', 24'), O. Manyisa (37'), T. Morena (43'), M. Madisha (47'), A. Ngcongca (58'), N. Zwane (74'), B. Marie (77' o.g.), F. Voavy (79'), M. Affonso (83').

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria, GT.