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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Bloem Celtic — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
2/19/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns59%
×Draw24%
Bloem Celtic17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.71
Bloem Celtic
0.78

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 119% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Bloem Celtic
1.02

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Bloem Celtic
1.47

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Bloem Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
83%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Bloem Celtic
76%
Draw or Bloem Celtic
41%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
33%
Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
82%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
51%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
24%
Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
54%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
18%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
78%
Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
59%
level
24%
Bloem Celtic scores more
17%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Bloem Celtic

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Bloem Celtic 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on February 19, 2020.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane.