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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
9/5/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 24Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns65%
×Draw21%
Black Leopards13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.88
Black Leopards
0.71

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 165% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
87%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Black Leopards
79%
Draw or Black Leopards
35%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
39%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
85%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
56%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
29%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
51%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
16%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
83%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.88

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
65%
level
21%
Black Leopards scores more
13%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Black Leopards

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Black Leopards 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.