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Malženice vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II — 3. liga - West 2020

Malženice
Malženice
FT
3 – 1
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
10/3/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 9Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Malženice74%
×Draw16%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
2.49
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
0.79

Malženice creates 215% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 25 away

creates per match

Malženice
2.41
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
0.72

allows per match

Malženice
0.87
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
2.56

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
90%
Malženice or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
84%
Draw or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
26%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
52%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
92%
Malženice 2+ goals
71%
Malženice 3+ goals
45%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
55%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
19%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
88%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 2.41 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.49

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 0.72 + Malženice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Malženice scores more
74%
level
16%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
10%

Malženice at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malženice vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

Malženice beat Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3-1 in 3. liga - West on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Malženice in Malženice.